2025 End of Year Letter

As we welcome the new year, I want to review what The Clifford Group has seen in the markets over the last twelve months and how we view the opportunities in front of us in 2026. The past year delivered no shortage of striking headlines, yet we end 2025 with a market that has performed well, economic fundamentals that remain balanced, and reasons to believe that the bull market can continue. We saw pressure on domestic equities in the first quarter, sharp rebounds in the second, steady growth and the beginning of a rate-cutting cycle in the third, and periods of volatility offset by strong earnings in the fourth. The story was far from linear. At one point, the VIX, a volatility index used to measure forward-looking concern in the market, reached a five-year high.  Despite all of this, we remain very encouraged by fundamental strength in the economy, stock market, and credit ecosystem.

The first quarter decline in the S&P 500, which totaled more than 15 percent, was significant. Rapid selloffs within that broader move reveal the pattern more clearly. On Monday, January 27, investors sold technology stocks at an exceptional pace, pulling major U.S. indices lower.1 Domestic artificial intelligence companies were the most volatile stocks on the day, declining notably.2 After the April 2 tariff announcements, the S&P 500 fell more than 12 percent, representing roughly 5.8 trillion dollars in value.3 Concerns centered on whether tariffs would hurt earnings while driving inflation higher and weakening the labor market. Yet historical evidence suggested that the faster a market fell toward its trough, the faster the recovery that followed. Since 1957, in the fastest quartile of market declines, the market was positive over the next twelve months every time, with an average gain of 30 percent.4 This recovery began only days after liberation day was announced. On April 9, when the administration issued a temporary pause on certain tariffs, the market rallied to its third largest single day gain since World War II.5 Domestic stocks have continued to build on that strength in the months since.

Much of the conversation around tariffs focused on the possibility of renewed inflation. While inflation has trended modestly higher in recent months, the expected spike in consumer prices has not materialized, and it appears increasingly likely that sellers have absorbed much of the cost.6 It is still possible that businesses will raise prices in early 2026, but the risk that tariffs alone will drive a significant shock to growth now appears limited.7 Labor market strength, however, has softened. The September jobs report, released November 20 following the government shutdown, showed unemployment rising to 4.4 percent.8 Although the report showed more job creation than expected, downward revisions to prior months and the absence of an October report have created meaningful uncertainty. This has fueled disagreement within the Federal Reserve over whether inflation or labor conditions deserve the most attention at this stage.

Corporate earnings throughout 2025 have been strong. Third quarter results showed considerable year-over-year growth, led by the technology and financial sectors.9 Robust earnings, especially in growth-oriented companies, pushed valuations higher, although intermittent volatility kept them below historical extremes. At the same time, hyperscaling mega cap companies continued spending heavily on AI research and data center expansion.10 The size and complexity of these investments have drawn scrutiny, along with the narrow group of firms involved. These questions are important, but the capital backing the AI buildout is supported by significant free cash flow rather than excess leverage, which provides stability.

Building on this earnings strength, the buildout of Artificial Intelligence, and a developing rate cutting cycle, there are numerous areas where we see significant opportunities for growth in 2026 and beyond.  We expect AI to remain a driver of growth, though we do foresee the volatility associated with that sector of the market to continue.  With AI valuations at elevated levels, events of long-term insignificance may continue to cause dramatic short term price movement, as we saw in January of last year.  On the campaign trail, President Trump spoke regularly about reducing regulatory burden on companies.  While spending reductions and tax reform were priorities of the administration in its first year, we believe regulatory changes will be coming in meaningful fashion in the near-term.  In this context, we may see a significant tailwind for financial companies.11  The industrial sector may experience similar benefits, compounded by its exposure to the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, reshoring trends, and necessary energy grid expansion. Mid-cap and small-cap companies, which often carry larger concentrations of floating rate debt, should benefit from the rate cutting cycle if the lowering of yields is sustained.  Finally, we continue to see positive performance in overseas markets, notably Europe and certain emerging countries, powered by government expenditures and a weaker dollar.12

I am excited about what 2026 may bring. The year ahead will undoubtedly present its own surprises, but we believe the foundation is solid. By focusing on tailored, diversified, and risk aware strategies, we can position portfolios to capture opportunity while maintaining the flexibility to adapt when conditions shift. Our commitment is to stay disciplined, thoughtful, and proactive on your behalf.  I wish you a happy and safe new year.

Citations:

  1. Carew, S. et al. DeepSeek sparks AI stock selloff; Nvidia posts record market-cap loss.  Reuters, January 27th, 2025.
  2. Hansen, S. and Alpert, G. AI Stock Routh: Monday’s Selloff in 5 Charts.  Morningstar, January 27th, 2025.
  3. Heusel, M.  Opinion: Liberation Day and the Impact on the American Stock Market.  Michigan Journal of Economics, May 2nd, 2025.
  4. Chisholm, D.  Quarterly Sector and Investment Research Update.  Fidelity Investments, June 30th, 2025.
  5. Li, Y. Stock market posts third biggest gain in post-WWII history on Trump’s tariff about-face.  CNBC, April 9th, 2025.
  6. Dr. Kelly, D et al. 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 2025.
  7. Jorda, O. and Nechio, F. The Economic Effects of Tariffs.  Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, November 24th, 2025.
  8. Bureau of Labor Statistics.  The Employment Situation- September 2025. U.S. Department of Labor, November 20th, 2025.
  9. Dr. Kelly, D. Economic Update.  J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 24th, 2025.
  10. Dr. Kelly, D. et al. 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 2025.
  11. DeSpirito, T. et al. Equity Market Outlook Q4 2025. BlackRock, November 2025.
  12. Dr. Kelly, D. et al. 2026 Year-Ahead Investment Outlook. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, November 2025.

Important Information

The Clifford Group LLC (“The Clifford Group”) is a registered investment advisor. Advisory services are only offered to clients or prospective clients where The Clifford Group and its representatives are properly licensed or exempt from licensure. The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice and it should not be relied on as such. It should not be considered a solicitation to buy or an offer to sell a security. It does not take into account any investor’s particular investment objectives, strategies, tax status or investment horizon. You should consult your attorney or tax advisor. The views expressed in this commentary are subject to change based on market and other conditions. These documents may contain certain statements that may be deemed forward looking statements. Please note that any such statements are not guarantees of any future performance and actual results or developments may differ materially from those projected. Any projections, market outlooks, or estimates are based upon certain assumptions and should not be construed as indicative of actual events that will occur. All information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.  There is no representation or warranty as to the current accuracy, reliability, or completeness of, nor liability for, decisions based on such information and it should not be relied on as such. For additional information, please visit our website at www.thecliffordgrp.com.

Risk Disclosure

No investment strategy or risk management technique can guarantee returns or eliminate risk in any market environment.  All investments include a risk of loss that clients should be prepared to bear. The principal risks of The Clifford Group strategies are disclosed in the publicly available Form ADV Part 2A. Generally, among asset classes, stocks are more volatile than bonds or short-term instruments. Government bonds and corporate bonds have more moderate short-term price fluctuations than stocks, but provide lower potential long-term returns.  U.S. Treasury Bills maintain a stable value if held to maturity, but returns are generally only slightly above the inflation rate.  Diversification does not ensure a profit or guarantee against loss. Risk associated with equity investing include stock values which may fluctuate in response to the activities of individual companies and general market and economic conditions.  Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations.  Investing in foreign domiciled securities may involve risk of capital loss from unfavorable fluctuation in currency values, withholding taxes, from differences in generally accepted accounting principles or from economic or political instability in other nations. Investments in emerging or developing markets may be more volatile and less liquid than investing in developed markets and may involve exposure to economic structures that are generally less diverse and mature and to political systems which have less stability than those of more developed countries. Investments in mid-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, better known companies, but may be less volatile than investments in smaller companies. Investments in small-sized companies may involve greater risks than in those of larger, better known companies.